Reclaiming Common Sense

Did the President's Private Sector Job Streak End May 2016 or January 2015?


This weekend the concept for this column was to compare the Current Population Survey Data with the Current Employment Statistics Data in preparation for Friday's August Jobs Report. It was discovered while researching the column that when the data for 2015 was revised, earlier this year, that if the data from 2014 had not been revised there would have been net seasonally adjusted SA CES job loss reported for January 2015. This column has published prior columns on this issue. If you are discuss the non-farm payroll data - that streak did not start until after October 2010.


If the revisions made to the data only reflected the changes to the 2015 data we would have seen net Seasonally Adjusted CES Private Sector Job Loss during January 2015. The data was previously revised shortly after the "The Politics of Employment Numbers (Part 2)" column was released. President Bush's streak was cut short during the Month of October 2014.  What new data was discovered more than 5 years after President Obama took office. They had a choice -revise the narrative or revise the data.


If we cannot trust the data can we trust the decisions made based upon the data? The numbers that have been rel;eased this month has shown weak new home construction data, weak new home sales data, weak existing home salesdata, weak retail sales data. The President has been very proud of this data. He suddenly went silent on the Streak when the streak ended. Now instead of consecutive months of job creation the word consecutive is missing. 


The Federal Reserve Chairperson is going to make a recommendation regarding the Federal Reserve Funds Rate. This is the rate that they charge banks to whom they loan money. This impacts the interest rates we may on mortgages and credit cards.


If they are basing their recommendations on faulty data what can we expect?


PS. Note that the question is not if the private sector job streak ended, it is WHEN did it end?