The media used to make a big deal regarding the First-time Unemployment Claims report. The problem is that the longer they ignore it the bigger the surprise will be when things turn south. The weekly report includes data on the level of first-time unemployment claims (FTU,) continuing Claims (CC,) and the Insured unemployment rate. There are seasonally adjusted (SA) values and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) values for each piece of data. The seasonally factors used to convert the NSA data to the SA data change from week to week, month to month, season to season, year to year, and decade to decade.  When seasonally adjusted data from different seasons are compared FACTs (False Assertions Considered to be True) are created. This week the FACT is that we have the lowest SA FTU number since July of 1973. False, False, False. The data was better and worse than was reported.

First-time claims, non-seasonally adjusted, are at the lowest since 2000 for the third week of February. First time claims edged down to 240,527 . This should be good news. They should be broadcasting this all over the place. The problem is that we have a large level of people working two jobs, part-time jobs, or seasonal jobs that normally do not receive unemployment benefits. The number is being skewed low by historically low, or near historically low, participation.

Not the Best Seasonally Adjusted First-time Unemployment Claims number since July 1973. We did not really have 246,000 Seasonally Adjusted First-time Claims. If we used the same seasonal factor as last February that number would be 264,000 not 246,000. This is still below the magical 300,000 claim level. We have missing unemployed workers that are not being captured in the standard U-3 unemployment data or the weekly unemployment claims data. 

If the data for July 21, 1973 two things are noticeable: 1) There was a higher level of NSA FTU claims and a lower SA FTU claims number. 2) if the seasonal factors for the two weeks were reversed we could have seen a SA FTU claim level of 223,000 claims reported this week.

Continuing Claims Levels continue to Creep higher - Approaching 2.5 million claims. It is impossible for the continuing claims number to rise if there are no first-time claims. How is the continuing claims number rising with weak first-time claims? People are having a hard time finding jobs.

The data is "good." It continues to be "good." It is good for the wrong reasons: Low participation rate, elevated levels of part-time jobs, elevated levels of multiple job holders, and entire sectors that have not recovered to pre-recession job levels.

Dig beyond the headlines - if there are headlines. No matter what Reuters is reporting, this report is a bit troubling.  Few people dig into the data.

It's the economy.