There is a Reason why this website is called "It's The Economy."
The most popular articles on this website tend to focus on jobs. Sometimes the Retail Sales report or the Consumer Price Index report crack the top ten columns of any given month. Sometimes the weekly unemployment claims reports garner "top ten" attention. Often articles regarding real estate, new home construction, new home sales, or existing home sales, crack the top ten.This month followed those trends.
(Oct 7) This Jobs Report underwhelmed. September is a jobs loss month. This September was worse than is being reported elsewhere. We lost over 1 mill full-time jobs. We gained over 1 million part-time jobs. The number of unemployed fell. The participation rate fell. If seasonal factors from September 2012 were used we would have reported only 33,000 Private Sector Workers joining the workforce, even though we really lost 457,000 NSA Private Sector Workers. "September Jobs Report - Down is Up" details how we are adding fewer private sector workers this year than we added during 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, or 2015.
(Oct 9) "Can we Seasonally Adjusted Our Income, Please" was written on Sunday. This is rare. Normally the only column written on a Sunday is one that is inspired while I am attending church. This column used the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) Current Employment Statistics (CES) as a backdrop. The column detailed how we lost NSA CES workers last month and the seasonal adjustments turned that loss into a gain. We normally see seasonal job loss in the September jobs report. That is why the government uses seasonal factors to adjust the data. The problem is that they had to 'invent' a new seasonal factor to make the number sound better than it was. If we would have used the seasonal factor from September of 2012, the previous Presidential Election, the "job gains" would have been reported at 33,000 Jobs.
(Oct 4) Last week this column got a little busy and ignored the weekly unemployment claims report. This should not be a surprise as "everyone else" has forgotten about it. "Unemployment Claims Limbo - How Low Can They Go?" detailed how the NSA First-time Unemployment (FTU) claims level was at a 16 year low and the Continuing Claims data was near a 16 year low for the final week of September. This is not a good thing. Read the column and prior columns to understand how these reports are understating the weakness in the economy.
(Oct. 21) If the recovery is so good why don't we have a good feeling about the economy. The media has been touting the economic stimulus of low gasoline prices. Recently Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen stated that we might need a "hot" economy may be needed to heal the economy. One of the important data sets that is released during a month is the Consumer Price Index data. The CPI data for September shows that we are seeing our energy savings consumed by higher medical costs, higher insurance costs, higher education and communication costs, and higher shelter costs. "Medical Inflation, Shelter Inflation Eating Into Energy Savings "details how we are spending our money and the real inflation that we are experiencing.
(Oct 6) There are times when this column attempts to connect the dots between various reports. It is easy to connect the dots between Retail Sales and Inflation. It is easy to connect the dots between Tax Revenue and Retail Sales. It became obvious that I needed to produce a column on the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data that was released last month as people were discussing rising medical care costs and rising health insurance premiums. This data is seasonally adjusted in so many ways that multiple comparisons have to be made. Suffice it to say that "gasoline savings" we are seeing cannot be "saved" if shelter and medical costs are rising. "August Shelter Costs Offset Energy Savings" details how medical costs and medical insurance costs are exceeding the base rate of inflation.
(Oct 8) "October 8 - Week in Review - Skewing the data" reviewed the Jobs number in greater detail. That week was "Jobs Report" Week. The top read columns on this website are those that are jobs related. The August Jobs Report was bad - they skewed the data higher than it should have been with an artificial seasonal factor for the Current Employment Statistics (CES) data. They did it again this month. This was expected and projected.
(Oct 5) Seasonal Factors are the lifeblood of government economists. Seasonal factors can turn job losses into job gains. They can inflate or deflate unemployment claims numbers. They can make or break streaks ."September Seasonal Factor Creep" details how the September data is being more and more manipulated every year. This column will explain why I rarely trust any seasonally adjusted data.
(Oct 3) The Week started with the September Jobs Report Forecast Column. "September Should Be A Job Loss Month" was subtitled "Seasonal Factors Matter." It was thought that we should see a drop in full-time jobs, an increase in part-time jobs, a drop in unemployed workers, a drop in the unemployment rate and a drop in the participation rate, all non-seasonally adjusted. It was thought that the authors of the report would manipulate the seasonal factors that are used to convert the non-seasonally adjusted Current Employment Statistics (CES) data to the reported Seasonally Adjusted CES data. The only question was how high would the seasonal factor be?
(Aug 21, 2015) Every so often a column from a prior month or year trends in the Top Ten column of another month or year. The column "Year of the Meme: Which President Created the Most Jobs" examined the number of full-time and part-time jobs created and lost under the past 4 Presidents and the current President. Are we talking full-time jobs? Clinton wins that one. Part-time Jobs? Reagan wins that one. Combined jobs? Clinton. Job Growth as a percentage increase? Reagan. Right now Obama comes in third place. Economic cycles run out of steam every seven years or so. President Obama has 17 months to go. Will he shoot to number one or will he fall behind Bush 43? Remember that the final month of every Presidency is January and that January is a job shedding month.
(Oct 12) A meme that this column addressed the "War on Women." Written December 11, 2014, the column "War on Women? Men Lost 740,000 Jobs during November" examined the changes in population, full-time jobs, part-time jobs and unemployment by gender. This week the column "Fewer Men Working Full-time than July 2007" revisited that analysis and found that women had added full-time and part-time jobs while men have lost full-time jobs and added part-time jobs since July 2007.
The economy should be the driving force of any election. The number of jobs lost during the Great Recession was staggering. We have not had a complete recovery. Housing is lagging. Jobs are lagging for the number of people added to the workforce. We have fewer men working full-time jobs now than during July of 2007 - over nine years ago. The debt that Senator Obama called unpatriotic and irresponsible has doubled under President Obama even after the majority of the Troubled Asset Relief Program loans have been repaid. Revenue is lagging from businesses. Individual taxpayers are paying more in taxes than ever. Health Insurance premiums are rising. Deductibles are rising. Fewer employers with under 50 employees are providing health care benefits for their employees. The worker is paying a larger share of the premium cost after the passage of the Affordable Care Act than prior to its passage. We have a record level of people working two part-time jobs. We have a generational low participation rate which means that the effective unemployment rate is between 9 and 12% instead of the official "5%."
It's the economy.
.