Reclaiming Common Sense

Last year we set a record for the number of people working two part-time jobs during the month of August. There were over 2 million people working two part-time jobs last year. We have set record levels of people working two part time jobs many times this year.

The level of people working multiple jobs and Multiple Part-time jobs since the beginning of the year have been near or at record highs for the current month even as we have shed part-time jobs and added full-time jobs, non-seasonally adjusted. The August Jobs Forecast article detailed that we should reduce part-time jobs, add full-time jobs, and add private sector workers. We could also see a decrease in participation and unemployment. What may happen this Friday?


We often see a drop in total multiple Job Holders while seeing an increase in people working two part-time jobs during August. We can expect a 1% to 4% bump in part-time part-time workers. A 1% jump would place us well over 2 million and approaching 2.2 million PT PT workers. We have also seen regular increases in the number of people working a primary full-time job and a secondary part-time job during August during the past decade.


We may likewise see a spike in multiple job holders and multiple part-time job workers as compared to August of last year.  This may not receive much attention in light of the other issues that are impacting us right now.  If we see a 4% increase over last August we could hit 2.1 million workers.


Multiple Job Workers are altering reality. The net net is that we can expect an increase in people working multiple jobs, in part because it is the Summer, and in part because it is easier for people who have jobs to find jobs. This is important because elevated levels of dual workers means that we may be dragging down the participation rate as fewer workers are working more jobs. The elevated level of dual job workers is also important because some people may be working two part-time jobs instead of one full-time job. The elevated level of dual job workers is also important when it comes to measuring the unemployment level. We will receive a weekly unemployment claims report Thursday before the  Friday Employment Situation Report. The data that impacts this month's jobs report have been released during the past week. The continuing claims level for the jobs reporting week of August was 1.885 million workers. The continuing claims data released closest to the July Jobs Report was 1.974 million for July 15th. The drop of continuing claims means that we should see a drop in the U-3 unemployment level of roughly 300,000  workers. We are already at 7.441 million non-seasonally adjusted unemployed workers. If we drop 400,000 more off the unemployment rolls we will have a lower U-3 unemployment level for the month of August than we had during August of 2006 and August of 2007, possibly Lower than August of 2001.


There is a considerable amount of data in the Employment Situation Report. There is data on jobs created and lost, workers added and lost, unemployment levels, participation levels, population level, full-time and part-time workers, the age of the workers, the gender of the works, and the sectors in which people are working, just to name a few. This has been an incomplete recovery - there are still sectors that have fewer workers than prior to the recession. We have more full-time jobs than we have ever recorded. It is possible that we will add non-seasonally workers during August, as President Clinton did during 1993. Sooner or later the rest of the media will have to recognize the situation that this Presidency is off to a roaring start.


It's the economy.