Retail Sales Are Down in Six Sectors Compared to Last October.The graph above this paragraph is a mainstay of this column. It is no surprise that Gasoline sales are down. These are the "gasoline savings" that we are supposed to be spending in other sections in the retail market, instead we are spending it on taxes and shelter.  We have seen retail sales drop from last October in the Furniture Sector, the Electronics and Appliance Sector, and the gasoline sector. This we have seen the majority of this year. We are seeing slower sales in Clothing, Hobby, and General Merchandise than we saw last October. The economy is slowing.

Retail Sales are Slowing

If you heard anything regarding the October Monthly and Annual Retail Trade Survey (MARTS) data it was that October was pretty good. It wasn't good enough for more than one segment at 8:30 this morning. Sure, they scroll laudatory information under the ticker, it's just that "nobody" gives them much weight. It is all -anti-Trump all the time. Protests at high schools. Protests in the streets. Protests in the Senate.

What Really Happened.

Retail Sales Are Slowing. Retail sales are growing at roughly a 3% rate. Some of the growth is real. Some of the growth is inflation. We will find out what impact inflation is having on sales when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is released. Home furnishings are down month to month and October to October. Electronics and appliances sales  are down from month to month and October to October. Hobby sales are down month to month and October to October.

We are seeing sales grow faster than last October and slower than six months of this sear. We are seeing sales. Food and Beverage sales are growing slower than the rest of the economy. Growth is good. Slowing growth in Food and Beverage Stores and Food and Drinking Establishments is not good. This is the "Restaurant Recession" that you may have heard discussed.  The growth annual growth rate is slower than it was this February, March, April, May, June and September.  Slowing annual sales means fewer people will be hired and with fewer people being hired less money will be spent.

It's the Economy.

Retail Sales Are Down in Three Sectors Compared to  October 2007. There are three sectors that have not seen sales return to October 2007 levels nine years after the fact. We saw a rebound in the Gasoline Station Sales Sector until the price of gasoline faltered during the past three years. Retail sales have not recovered to pre-recession levels in the Furniture and Home Furnishing Sector nor the Electronics and Appliance Sector. This is certainly a result of the weak new and existing home sales data. The truth of the matter that we have not seen new home sales or existing home salesreturn to pre-recession levels, in units sold. New home sales are not back to the levels that we saw during 1983 or 1992. Are we 23 years or 14 years away from a recovery and expansion? Existing Home Sales are trending with the 2000 data.  Are we sixteen years away from an existing home expansion?