We recorded a Full-time Jobs loss, Again. The other half of the report is the real jobs number. We lost 140,000 non-seasonally adjusted full-time jobs during October. We gained nearly 500,000 part-time jobs. This was within expectations. The early analysis is that this boosted the dual job workers market. This type of change is consistent to what we saw during 2008 when we lost 193,000 full-time jobs and added 426,000 part-time jobs.
We saw a net job loss reported, again. We have seen net job losses during October on a fairly regular basis. We had net October job losses during2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010. We gained jobs during 2011 and 2012. We lost seasonally adjusted jobs during 2013 - so much for the "jobs streak." We gained jobs during 2014 and 2015. The see saw action is astounding.
Unemployment Dropped during October - Job Gains or Dropping out? The good news is that it dropped. The bad news is that we do not know why it has dropped. We lost full-time jobs - did they lose their one and only job? The part-time number surged. This could cause a drop in the number of unemployed. Are they no longer looking for work and therefore not counted as unemployed? This will be addressed in the "Four Presidents at 93 months" column and the "Multiple Job Holders column." What we know is that we added more people to the workforce population than we added seasonally adjusted jobs.
How can we be at full-employment? Full-employment is considered to be when the unemployment rate is below 5%. The unemployment rate is 4.80%, non-seasonally adjusted. The problem is that full employment at a participation rate of 62.83% is not the same as when the participation rate is over 65%. We had high participation and low unemployment during the Bill Clinton Era and the George W Bush era. Not so under President Obama. Unemployment has dropped because people are dropping out of the economy and are not considered to be unemployed.
Will President Obama finish his term with fewer full-time Workers than were employed during July of 2007? This column has produced many articles on the "Part-time Iceberg" where the full-time job loss was perpetually below the waterline while the part-time job creation was above the waterline. We have only added 3.6 million part-time jobs and 1.4 million Full-time jobs since July 2007. Five million jobs, mostly part-time, is not a strong record of job creation. Yes, President Obama has overseen the recovery of over 14 million full-time jobs since the depth of the recession . He also oversaw part of the job loss of the recession. This will be detailed in the "Four President's Column." We see job loss every January. Some of those jobs will be seasonal full-time jobs.
Spread the Word. This Jobs Report was a Stinker. This recovery is possibly fading.
It's the economy.
Jobs Report Caught Skewing the Data Again.
This week this column published a number of articles in preparation for the October Jobs Report, or Employment Situation Report. The first column "October (Surprise) Jobs Report Forecast" discussed how we could see a coin-flip jobs report and that we could have the coin land on its side. It was thought that the Non-Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) Current Employment Statistics (CES) Private Sector worker number could rise by less than 0.40% and that if that happened that the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) CES data would decline. It was also projected that we could lose NSA Full-time Jobs and gain NSA Part-time jobs, according to the Current Population Survey (CPS) data.
The second article that we could see a surge in the number of people working two part-time jobs. The article "Possible October Surge in People Working Two PT Jobs" detailed how we have seen a surge this year in people working two jobs, especially those working two part-time jobs. This is kept the unemployment rate artificially low. People working part-time jobs do not qualify for unemployment benefits. If they lose a job they still have another. People who lose one job of two are still employed, so even if they lose a full-time job they will not be unemployed. This article projected the possibility of a record level of October workers working two part-time jobs.
What Worker Growth? The third article that was written in anticipation of the October Jobs Report was one that focused on Job Growth in percentage terms. "Will Slowing Worker Growth Go Negative" called the October report pivotal. It is possible that the worker number could pivot up or it could pivot down from the September level. We have seen fewer workers added to the economy, as of September, than we saw during 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. The question was asked if we are on a path for job creation similar to 2000 and 2007, or are we on a path similar to 2001 and 2008. The former were plateau years while the later were stumbling years.
Seasonally Adjusted Worker Growth Over-reported, Again. There are many ways to manipulate the data. Reduce the prior month's data to lower the starting point for this month. Change the seasonal factor for this month's data to something that is more favorable. Invent a new seasonal factor to manipulate the data. The data from August was revised down from 123.302 million workers to 123.288 million workers (14,000 workers.) The data from September was increased from 122.845 to 122.886 million workers (+41,000.) This month the private sector worker number was recorded at 123,328, an increase of 442,000 workers. This is different from what you have read elsewhere because this is the non-seasonally adjusted data. The seasonal factor is skewing the data.
The Workforce Grew at 0.36% this month - that's Good, Right? Wrong. This column projected a wide range of potential change based on the prior years' data. We needed to grow at a rate of at least 0.40%. We grew at a slower rate than October 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014 or 2015. If we used the favorable seasonal factor proposed in the forecast column we would have added 97,000 workers. The seasonal factor of 0.9980457 had never been used.
If we used the same seasonal factor as October 2015 we would have added 25,000 "Jobs." Let that absorb for a while. The number could have, and should have, been reported at 25,000 workers being added. This is no growth.
We are adding fewer workers, year to date, than 2011-2015.