This has been a working vacation. There has been a considerable amount of driving, some cooking, and some writing of columns. The first week of most months is focused on the upcoming and recently released "jobs report." The "jobs" number is actually the Current Employment Statistics (CES) "worker" number, while the number of jobs created is found in the Current Population Survey (CPS) data. The CPS data also includes data on the level of unemployed workers. This column is able to right numerous articles from all of the data provided. This normally happens during the second week of the month.
(June 5) We are seeing full-time jobs created and unemployed workers decline.We were seeing the exact opposite during the first four months f President Obama's first term in office while we e=were shedding full-time jobs and seeing the unemployment levels spike."Five Presidents at Month Four: Full-time Replacements" compares the job creation and participation rates of Presidents Reagan, Clinton, "Bush 43," and Obama to President Trump. It also digs into the "U-7 Unemployment Rate" which will be detailed more during the remainder of the week.
(June 6) The job situation for men has been weaker than is being reported elsewhere. The drop in the national participation rate has been shared unequally between men and women. Women started with a lower participation rate and saw their rate drop less than the male participation rate. Men lost he brunt of the jobs during the recession. Women recovered quicker from the recession and have added more jobs than men have added. "Men Have Recovered from the Recession, Again" goes into detail on the full-time and part-time job creation that has, or hasn't, occurred since the Summer of 2007 and how the effective unemployment rate (U-7) for men is 10.83%. This is significantly different from the official non-seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment rate of 4.04%.
(June 7) All of the reports that are released by the government on a weekly, monthly, or quarterly basis are connected. All of the reports that are released have data behind them. The jobs report also includes data at the sector level - both private and government. Some sectors have recovered to July 2007 levels while other have not. The sectors that have not recovered tend to be male dominated sectors: Mining and Logging, Construction, Manufacturing, and Information Technology. We have been adding jobs across ten of the eleven sectors the past two months. The article "May Sector Data: Ten Sectors Up Over April" details these changes and also points out how the downturn in manufacturing has been "offset" by the rise in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, Education and Heath Services, and Leisure and Hospitality sector jobs.
(June 8) A story that is frequently overlooked is the growth of the multiple job working sector of the workforce. We have seen elevated levels of part-time job creation for years. Part-time workers replaced full-time workers and single job working individuals had to find a second job. President Obama said that "Julia" wanted a flexible schedule, and the ability to work part-time jobs. Now she works two or three jobs. The multiple jobs workers data did not get as much attention as it could have this month because we didn't set a record level for the number of people working two part-time jobs for the month of May - that was last year. We didn't set a record for the month of may for people working two jobs - even though this was the highest May level since 2009. "May Multiple Job Workers Up From May 2016" explains how this has changed out economy and how it is impacting our unemployment numbers.
(June 8) They still produce weekly unemployment claims reports. You wouldn't know it by watching the news or reading the paper. You have to search far and wide for 15 seconds on the topic on television or two in-column, below the fold paragraphs in the business section of your paper.We have the lowest non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims level of unemployment for the final week of May/first week of June since 1971."Historic May Continuing Claims Data, Again" details the unsung story and also examines seriously low levels of first-time claims. How low will they go this Summer? How much lower can they go this Fall?
(June 9) Another way to examine the data is to break down the jobs data by age group. There have been anecdotal stories of people who were going to retire during 2008 who had to delay their plans and stories of people "un-retiring."What does the data say? The data says that there are "gaps" in our employment levels, by age group. The data says that our workforce is aging. The data says that older workers are participating at a higher rate than prior to the recession. This month, the "Red, Gray, and Blue" series finds that those over the age of 60 have a negative U-7 unemployment rate. "Over 60 Participating More than May 2007" finds that those under the age of 60 are participating less than they were during the Summer of 2007, and that while some of this is due to "age shift," moving from one 5-year age group to the next, some of this is due to the number of older people working longer than prior to the recession.
All of the data is connected. Employment is connected to unemployment. Retail sales are connected to employment and retail employment grows when retail sales grow. Retail sales grow when housing sales increase. Housing sales are able to increase when people obtain permanent full-time jobs. Jobs in construction pick up when jobs in other sectors increase. Tax revenues increase when jobs improve. Companies invest money in people and machinery when the economy improves. We need people to run machines to make machines. We need people to service existing products. We need people working to import and export goods and raw materials . When people eel more confident regarding the economy they sell their existing homes and buy another, larger or newer, home. When the economy is good they buy a newer automobile. Automobile and home sales are the "drivers" of our economy. The more people are employed, the more they buy "stuff." they more people buy stuff the more people are employed.
Soon we will be receiving data on new home construction, new home sales, and existing home sales. Soon we will receive information on retail spending, inflation, and tax receipts. Will we see a continuing existing home shortage? Will we see new home oversupply continue? How will this activity impact the second quarter GDP and this month's tax receipts?
It's the economy.