More Jobs than Workers, Again
How is President Trump doing after sixteen months in office? We know from the May Jobs Report Articles "Seriously Strong Full-time Job Gains This Month" and "May Wages Up, May Workers Up" we know that the numbers were really good, even historic. Was it a one time fluke? Was February a one-time fluke? The data says otherwise. There was an Internet Meme that President Obama was the most successful jobs President since Clinton that created the foundation for this series. Four Presidents at 81 Months displayed how at the same points in their Presidencies that President Obama was in fourth place for job creation compared to Presidents Reagan, Clinton, and George W Bush. President Obama moved up to third place by the time he left office. How is President Trump doing compared to those four Presidents.
President Obama was the only President to have negative job growth after 16 months in office. President Trump has added 5.483 million total jobs since taking office. He has added 6 million full-time jobs and trimmed half a million part-time jobs. President Clinton added 3.8 million full-time jobs and 2.5 million part-time jobs. This means that President Clinton is ahead in job creation after 16 months. The question is do 2.5 million part-time jobs equate to 1.6 million full-time jobs? President Reagan added fewer jobs, and that is because he had a smaller workforce population and a lower participation rate. President Bush inherited the DotCom Crash and a slowing market. President Obama inherited the Great Recession. President Obama lost one million full-time jobs. (See Table.)
Unemployment fell under Presidents Trump and Clinton. That drop in unemployed workers is a drop in participants. Unemployed workers are participants. The job creation of both President Clinton and Trump means that their participation rates are up from their predecessors final month in office. Presidents Bush and Obama saw their participation rate during month 16 at lower levels than when they took office. President Trump's Non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) U-3 Unemployment Rate was recorded as 3.56% and was being compared with data from May 1999 or May 2000 when President Clinton recorded a NSA U-3 unemployment rate of 3.96% and 3.84%. Is President Trump winning? Yes and no.
Participation Matters. President Trump inherited the lowest participation rate of the five Presidents. He still remains at the lowest level of participation after 16 months. If the lower participation rate is factored into the unemployment rate by throwing "missing participants" into a classification of "effectively unemployed" the U-7 Effective Unemployment rate is 9.52%. Participation is rising. President Obama saw his unemployment rate as participation fell. It could also be argued that the participation rate fell as unemployment fell. Peak Participation normally occurs during July. President Trump's July Participation rate has been improving. He has to get his participation rate to exceed 63% just to be in the ballpark that the where former Presidents played. President Trump might be fortunate to catch up with President Reagan by the end of his first term. The effective unemployment rate right now, using the May 1999 and May 2000 Participation rates, they were the same, as the basis for the U-7 puts us at an effective unemployment rate of 9.52%. The U-7, using the same month data at 16 months, is over 7.18%. and up to 10.94%. It is all relative.
Full-time jobs are up. Unemployment is down. Participation is improving. We have had more jobs created than workers have been added to the workforce population. This is how Reagan and Clinton grew the economy and boosted participation.
It's the economy.