Reclaiming Common Sense

We have had an Incomplete Recovery.This was a busy week in the news. We saw the release of the Federal Debt number, it is rising, we saw information on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) it is rising, and New Home Construction, it isn't rising fast enough.We also saw new information on the first-time unemployment and continuing claims situation.


(August 15) It was during his first run for the Presidency that Senator Obama proclaimed that George W. Bush was unpatriotic and irresponsible for adding $4 trillion in debt to the Federal Debt during his time in office. The Federal debt stood at just e$10 trill when President Obama took office. We saw the introduction of Cash for Clunkers, The Troubles Asset Relief Program (TARP,) and Quantitative Easing. The Total cost of TARP has almost been repaid or written off. When the repayment of TARP is deducted from the debt President Obama "inherited" is closer to 9.6 Trillion. The "19.4 Trillion in Federal Debt is Irresponsible and Unpatriotic." Where are we spending our money? How can we have near record revenue and still have record Debt?


(August 16) A major piece of economic data was released this week: The New Construction data. New homes mean more retail spending for furniture, appliances, and other items. You may have heard that New Construction is on the rise or that it has hit a five month high. Most of the data quoted is the seasonally adjusted data. The problem is that we saw new construction drop so low that almost anything is an improvement. While it is true that the number of residential units under construction continues to soar, the number of new home starts and completions are fewer than what we saw during the month of July from 1981-2007.


(August 17) There were some reports that showed that we were on track for housing starts to exceed 1 million units this year. The problem is that they were looking at the housing units data and not the single family starts data.If we look at the single family data we find that Single Family Starts and Single Family Completions are happening at a slower pace than were recorded during 1983 and 1992. "Is Another Housing Recession Startng?"


(August 18)  We are supposed be seeing a huge boom in retail spending because of the low gasoline prices we are seeing at the pump. The money freed up from filling our tank is supposed to be going to food, clothing, cars and the like. What is missing from this narrative is that we are spending more on taxes, medical care and medical insurance. Those savings of $2500 a year we were promised are evaporating. This column revealed that  we are spending all of our energy savings on higher rents/mortgages and that we are spending almost all of those "savings" on higher education and costs. We have also seen higher costs for medical care services, hospital services, and health insurance. The July CPI report revealed that Health Insurance Costs are up 7.8% from July 2015 to July 2016.


(August 18) Thursday is the day that we receive a second "important" piece of economic data. Thursday we saw the release of the Unemployment Claims Report. Yes, they still release the data on a weekly basis. This week we saw the authors perpetuate the FACT (False Assertion Considered to be True) that the re have been 76 consecutive weeks where the seasonally adjusted first-time unemployment claims number has been under 300,000 for 76 consecutive weeks. We also saw that the continuing unemployment claims number remains stubbornly over 2 million claimants. The "Streak" has only been 26 weeks.


(August 19) This week we saw the release of the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Report for the month of July. This report breaks down the jobs data and the unemployment data by state. Would you believe that there are 5 sectors in the economy that have seen job growth since the Great Recession.? Would you believe that 6 sectors have seen jobs decline since the recession and have not recovered nearly 9 years after the start of the recession? We have had an Incomplete Recovery.


If you think the recovery is incomplete, you are correct. If you think you are alone, you are not alone. The government lives in a seasonally adjusted world. We live in reality.