July Auto Sales Went from Contraction to Expansion. We saw upward revisions of $4 billion dollars. You can dig into the data as you wish. The growth rate was a paltry 0.71% for the annual rate. This was the slowest rate without going into contraction  since 1992.

We have seen Annual Growth of 2.92% this year - Slower than 2011-2014. We are still seeing contraction in the Electronics and Appliance Sector, as previously noted.What has failed to garner much attention is that the Non-Store Retailer numbers are skyrocketing by over 16% while other store data is sluggish at best.

 Reclaiming Common Sense

June Sales were revised upward by $1 billion. The 3.54% growth rate was higher than originally reported. This rate was slightly better than 2015 and 2013 and 2012. We are still eating and driving our way to "prosperity."


What is our growth rate in spending? Is it 1%? Is it 3%? The good news is that spending continues to grow. It is at some of the slowest rates seen since the recession. Do we base forecasts on the June rate, the July rate, or the August rate? Do we base our decisions on the adjusted data or the real data?


We have done better. We can do better.

Sluggish Retail Numbers - Larger Adjusted Slowdown than Anticipated


The August Monthly and Annual Retail Trade Survey (MARTS) data was released this morning. The good news is that we "saved" $3.5 billion in gasoline expenditures during August 2016 compared to August 2015. The bad news is that we paid $20.5 billion more in taxes during the month of August 2016 than we did for the same month last year. There is no "gasoline stimulus." Now that that is out of the way we can dig into the rest of the report.


Retail Sluggishness Continues. We saw the slide in gasoline spending decrease to levels not seen since 2005. This has been touted as great news for us. Less money in the tank, more money in the bank. The problem is that we are also seeing a decrease in spending at the Electronics and Appliance  Stores than August 2015. Is this an economic stimulus? We are spending less money on clothing and clothing accessories than August 2015. Is this an economic stimulus? We  are spending less money in General Merchandise Stores than August 2015. Is this an economic stimulus?


We Have seen persistent Sluggishness in Furniture Sales, Electronics and Appliance Sales, Clothing, and Gasoline sales , and General Merchandise. It has been repeatedly noted that gasoline sales have been off for years. We have not returned to the level of furniture and home furnishing sales that we saw during August 2005, 2006 or 2007. We had lower Electronic and Appliance Sales than we Saw during August 2005-2008 and lower than August of 2013 and 2015.This is strongly associated with the abysmal new home sales and existing home sales levels.  Buying a house often involves buying new stuff for the inside and the outside of the home.


It is not all bad news - We saw strong Food and Beverage Store Sales as well as food and eating establishments. We saw a rebound in the auto market.We have seen same month drops in auto sales during May. We saw same month to month decreases in sales. We hit all-time August highs for Building Materials, Food and Beverage Stores, Food and Drinking Establishments, Personal Care, and Hobby and Books.